CONJUNCTURE THE IMF FORECASTS A POSITIVE OUTLOOK FOR CEMAC

According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Central Africa will grow by 3.4% in 2022 and by 3.5%, on average, in the following years. Meanwhile, we should see a slowdown in inflation due to the measures taken by the monetary authorities. The IMF, however, warns of misuse of oil revenues.

The IMF economists reviewed the CEMAC (Economic and Monetary Community of Central Africa) zone’s economies, a review IMF administrators validated. For those economists, «the prospects for 2023 are generally positive, driven by high oil prices, the lifting of barrier measures related to Covid-19, under the assumption of continuing prudent management of the increase in oil revenues. »

The area benefits «globally» from the «positive shock» of the terms of trade the war in Ukraine has provoked. The post-pandemic recovery is gradually taking hold, with real GDP growth expected to reach 3.4% in 2022, driven mainly by high oil prices and the lifting of lockdown measures.

External reserves have begun to replenish, although they remain below the desired level. Gross external reserves are expected to represent 3.5 months of imports at the end of 2022, thanks to the increase in oil export revenues and the tightening of monetary policy.

Global inflationary pressures have impacted domestic prices. Regional inflation is expected to reach 4.6% by the end of 2022, thus exerting pressure on real incomes and threatening food security.

In this context, the IMF notes, the regional authorities have tightened monetary policy and normalized prudential regulation in 2022, while continuing to advance their reform program. The Central Bank (BEAC) has raised its key interest rate three times in less than a year in response to inflationary pressures and to support the level of external reserves. In addition, it has strengthened its liquidity management framework….